Mr. Vikas Garg

Head - Fixed Income India, Invesco Mutual Fund

Vikas heads the Fixed Income investment function at Invesco India and also serves as a fund manager for various duration-oriented debt schemes at Invesco India. He has over 19 years' of experience, of which 17 years' are in the asset management industry spanning across credit research and portfolio management. In his last assignment, Vikas was working with L&T Mutual Fund as a Portfolio Manager where he was responsible for managing the Debt funds in various categories, including the high yield-oriented funds. In the past, he has worked in the credit research team with companies like FIL Fund Management Pvt. Ltd. and ICRA Ltd. Vikas holds B. Tech & M. Tech in Chemical Engineering from IIT- Delhi, PGDBM from XLRI -Jamshedpur and has cleared CFA (USA) Level III.

Q1. Given that the Reserve Bank of India has initiated its rate cut cycle, do you foresee an additional reduction in lending rates during the upcoming April policy meeting?

Ans: MPC has kickstarted the rate cut cycle with 25 bps in Feb 2025, after almost 5 years. Since then, global as well domestic factors have turned more favorable for the 2nd consecutive rate cut in April policy. Globally, while the inflationary threat of US's tariff policy lingers, it has also raised concerns about US's economic growth. Recent moderation in US's CPI & jobs market reflected that, and even FOMC highlighted the same in its March policy when it delivered a dovish pause. Back home, Feb 2025 headline inflation has come at 3.61%, much better than expectations and with that, 4QFY25 average inflation may remain closer to 4% as against RBI's projections of 4.4%. The recent monthly trade deficit came in sharply lower, and for the first time, net monthly service exports exceeded the trade deficit. The INR has recovered well after almost touching 88 against the Dollar. RBI has initiated various liquidity measures like Open Market Purchase operations of G-Sec and Fx swap in order to provide durable liquidity. 3QFY25 GDP growth has recovered to an extent over the previous quarter but the risk factors remain high amidst global policy flux, posing challenge to RBI's projected GDP growth of 6.7% for FY26. With these factors, we expect RBI to turn its focus on growth support with another 25 bps rate cut in the forthcoming April 2025 policy. The new MPC's more flexible approach to inflation trajectory under the inflation targeting framework provides room for further rate cuts, however, it may also depend upon the global situation.

Q2. RBI recently announced a $21 billion liquidity infusion through open market operations and foreign exchange swaps. How do you foresee these measures influencing bond yields and the overall fixed-income market?"

Ans: There has been a marked change in RBI's forex and liquidity management approach since December 2024. Even as the banking liquidity has been in deficit for quite some time, RBI has been providing enough liquidity through VRRs thereby maintaining the overnight TREPs yield close to the policy repo rate. Additionally, RBI has been providing durable liquidity through OMOs and Fx swap. While all these measures have helped reduce the liquidity deficit, short end money market and corporate bond yields are still elevated. We expect the banking liquidity to turn adequately surplus over next 2 months with RBI's continued liquidity measures and RBI's dividend in May, thereby triggering a downward movement in short end yields. We expect RBI to use OMOs as a major liquidity tool to inject durable liquidity which will further sweeten the demand-supply dynamics for G-Sec, especially in the 5-15 yr segment.

Q3. How important is duration management in the current economic environment? What approaches do you recommend for aligning portfolio duration with investment objectives?

Ans: With the likelihood of further rate cuts by RBI and improving banking liquidity over the next few months, the overall risk-reward remains favorable at the current juncture. However, it is also important to position appropriately on the yield curve. The G-Sec yield curve is steep as of now, especially in the 5 – 15 yr segment, which we expect to flatten out on favorable demand-supply dynamics with fiscal consolidation, FPI buying and RBI's OMOs. The corporate bond yield curve on the other hand is inverted as short end yields remain elevated due to tight banking liquidity and huge supply. We expect the corporate bond yield curve to flatten out as well, but with short end 1- 5 yr yields coming lower more rapidly as the banking liquidity improves post May 2025. Any uptick in yields due to still evolving global factors should be seen as an opportunity to build further exposure. Active fund management is critical as uncertainties may emanate from domestic inflation and global backdrop, which may influence various yield curve segments differently.

Q4. What criteria should investors consider when evaluating the creditworthiness of fixed income securities?

Ans: While the high external rating (like AAA / AA category) of issuers of fixed income securities provides a good starting point, one should also independently analyze the creditworthiness of the issuer. Various parameters like promoter's background, high corporate governance, track record of successfully managing the business across the cycles, strength of balance sheet, steady cash flows, debt servicing capabilities, external rating history, among others, can be considered to take a more informed view. Healthy credit metrics of an issuer scores better than the security package of underlying fixed income instruments.

Q5. How do you assess the influence of global economic trends, such as inflationary pressures and geopolitical events, on India's bond market?

Ans: Global market remains on edge as the US has started taking tariff policy measures against few countries. Such measures are expected against more countries, including India, thereby keeping the tensions high. Geo-political tensions have also flared up. The response function of countries may vary, adding to the overall volatility in financial & currency markets. US's further rate cut expectations are changing rapidly as incoming data suggests a healthy economy but at the same time policy disruptions may increase the risks to growth.

Against the global uncertainty, the Indian fixed income market is expected to remain largely resilient, though it may face knee-jerk reactions. The Central Government's clearly articulated fiscal consolidation path over the next few years remains a structural driver for the domestic fixed income market. Foreign investors continue to invest in the domestic fixed income market for the 4^th consecutive month with inclusion in global debt indices, even as the equity segment has seen huge outflows. The INR has proved to be relatively better across EMs, amidst currency volatility on the back of strong fundamental drivers and manageable current account deficit. Domestic inflation is showing healthy signs of moderation. Given these factors, we expect the domestic bonds market to remain largely insulated from global spillovers and react more to the domestic factors.

Q6. What is your outlook for the fixed-income market in the coming quarters, and what investment strategies do you recommend for investors seeking stable returns?

Ans: We maintain a constructive view on the domestic fixed income market on the back of favorable demand-supply dynamics for G-Secs, expected rate cuts and improving banking liquidity. Current elevated yields across the curve provide an attractive entry point. For investors looking to keep the volatility low, debt fund categories like Money Market, Ultra Short Duration and Low Duration provide healthy accruals and are expected to benefit from rate cuts & improving liquidity. Permitting the risk appetite, one may look to add duration through funds like Short Duration Fund, Corporate Bond Fund and Medium Duration Fund which can provide balanced participation in G-Sec in the 5-15 yr space and corporate bonds in 1-5 yr space. These categories will help in capturing capital gains as the yields decline.

Mr. Taher Badshah

Chief Investment Officer - Equity Invesco Mutual Fund

Taher has over 30 years of experience in the Indian equity markets. In his role as Chief Investment Officer, Taher is responsible for the equity and fixed income investment function at the firm. He has been with Invesco Asset Management, India for over 7 years. In his previous role with Motilal Oswal Asset Management as Head of Equities, he was responsible for leading the equity investment team. In the past, he has also worked with companies like Kotak Mahindra Investment Advisors, ICICI Prudential Asset Management, Alliance Capital Asset Management, etc. Taher holds a Master’s in management studies (MMS), with specialization in finance from S.P. Jain Institute of Management and a B.E. degree in Electronics from the University of Mumbai.

Q1. The year 2025 is presenting significant challenges, particularly for retail investors holding small-cap stocks. With the correction in high PE stocks, do you anticipate further market downturn or a gradual recovery as we step into FY26?

Ans: We believe the correction in the broad market and particularly in the SMID space since the start of the year has by and large run its course. Bulk of the damage is behind us. Domestic slowdown and Global uncertainty have been the key causes of the market decline. We think many of the measures taken by RBI and the Govt in the past 3 months, the start of the rate cut cycle and the support to consumption through the Budget will have their effects in the coming months to Improve growth trends. Globally, we reckon the tariff measures by the US will be in place over the next 2-3 months. We also expect the US economy to slow this year and thereby foreign investor flows to start moving from developed to emerging markets. Meanwhile, India's valuations, especially in the smallcap segment have corrected 20pc during this fall making the segment quite attractive once again for investors with a 2-3 year horizon.

Q2. Many stocks are currently trading at a 20-50% discount from their previous highs. What key criteria should investors consider when selecting stocks in this environment?

Ans: At a stock level, investors should move up the quality curve but at the same time ensure those companies are able to grow ahead of the system rate of growth (nominal GDP). Companies with credible competitive advantages and strong execution in the recent past should be preferred.

Q3. With factors like Trump's policies, trade wars, tariffs, dollar fluctuations, and a shaky US equity market-alongside Nifty hitting an eight-month low-how should Indian investors adjust their mindset and investment strategy in response?

Ans: Over time various factors will confront markets and investors in their journey. It is important to keep a longer-term view and return expectations modest. One will not find answers to all issues at the same time. It is important to be able to judge what market has already priced in. Due to prevailing uncertainties, India's valuations have lost much of their premium to world markets which provides an attractive entry point for smart investors who look to compound earnings over the long term in our view. Uncertainty provides opportunity.

Q4. If an investor approaches you with a medium risk appetite, and a significant cash reserve looking to invest exclusively in mutual funds, how would you construct a suitable mutual fund portfolio in this current market?

Ans: For investors with a medium risk appetite, I would recommend a combination of a flexicap and small cap fund (75%) at this stage of the market cycle. I would also look to do the remaining 25pc allocation to at best 1-2 thematic funds and a multi asset fund.

Q5. Do you anticipate an earnings recovery in Calendar Year 2025?

Ans: We think India's earnings downgrade cycle is largely done and with the measures undertaken by the central bank and the government, we expect the earnings cycle to strengthen in the coming quarters and alongside a steady back ended recovery in the markets starting second half of calendar 2025.

Mr. Sailesh Raj Bhan

CIO - Equity Investment, Nippon India Mutual Fund

Sailesh Raj Bhan is CIO - Equity Investments at Nippon India Mutual Fund. He has over 27 years of experience in Indian Equity Markets with over 19years at Nippon Life India Asset Management Limited. An MBA in Finance and CFA by qualification, he has been managing multiple flagship funds namely, Nippon India Large Cap Fund, Nippon India Multi Cap Fund & Nippon India Pharma Fund for over 15 years.

Q1. What are your thoughts on the overall budget and its impact on the equity markets, the economy, and other key areas?

Fiscally prudent balanced budget with its 3-pronged strategy 1) supporting consumption through tax cuts 2) maintaining capex thrust & creating better environment for bigger role private sector and 3) fiscal prudence. More disposable income is likely to lead to higher spending, better consumer - business confidence and eventually private capex recovery backed by credit growth revival. We expect the budget will be viewed positively by markets and domestic flows will be supportive.

Q2. When discussing the Budget, it's clear that several incentives have been introduced for the middle class to drive consumption. However, the capital market's expectations were not fully addressed. What are your thoughts on this?

Consumption slowdown was a key area which was sought to be addressed by the budget, however the Capex push was maintained despite the constraints of fiscal prudence. Total capex spend is projected to grow at 10% YoY against 8% in FY25. Including extra budgetary resources (IEBR), total capex spend is likely to grow 11% against 7% in FY25. Within total capex, the growth in roads and railways capex (including IEBR) is flat (0%) in FY26 ( 5-7% YoY in FY25 while defense capex is projected to grow 13% YoY in FY26 versus 4% in FY25. Apart from these measures ease of doing businesses has been the key theme of the Budget, which can help in improving Private Sector capex.

Q3. Have there been any changes in FIIs' concerns or their positioning following the Budget?

The prevailing global macroeconomic conditions along domestic factors may weigh on the sentiment of foreign investors in the short run. This along with the currency volatility based on policy shifts in the US is another parameter which will influence the flows. While the India equity valuations have moderated with large caps closer to long term averages and broader premiums have come off from the highs, it is anticipated the FIIs may remain cautious in the near term till better visibility emerges from a macro perspective.

Q4. What are the most and least promising sectors after the Budget?

Large financials, consumer discretionary segment along with structural themes like urbanization, premiumization and localization of manufacturing appear well placed in the current context

Q5. Given the recent market volatility, what are your predictions for future SIP trends? Have you observed any recent changes in SIP inflows or a shift in allocation patterns?

SIPs are great form of long-term wealth building. Given the extent of investor awareness through various educational initiatives, it is unlikely that SIP flows may witness large scale stoppages. Although, there have not been any significant changes in allocation pattern, it is likely that large cap and large cap-oriented categories like Flexi/Multi/Large Mid Cap etc. may witness higher investor preference on higher than usual volatility.

Q6. Suppose someone with a three-year investment horizon, particularly Gen Z investors who entered the market post-COVID, is now facing a 20-30% drawdown in their mutual fund. They might be questioning their decision, thinking, "What should we do?" How should they navigate this situation?

Asset allocation in line with an investor’s need is very important and in case there is deviation in the same due to market swings, its essential that the same is rebalanced in line with financial needs. Accordingly portfolio can be realigned and investors with shorter time horizon and less risk appetite can consider hybrid strategies like Balanced Advantage or Multi asset allocation funds or even consider adding some debt allocations.

Alternatively if the investor can extend the investment horizon and has appropriate risk appetite they can continue with their investments. Historically it has been observed that sharp decline in equity markets offer great opportunity to accumulate more units (at lower prices) like 2000, 2008, 2013, 2020 wherein the returns post the correction phase can be meaningful.